2016 Year Market Market Quotes and Development Trend Analysis – Beep Leo Forum – China Animal Husbandry Website – A useful animal husbandry website
This post was last edited by Chicchuan cattle and sheep, 2016-2-15 09:17 Editor
The 2015 year raised sheep market has become history, and the sheep industry will be in 2016. Where is the way? Today, let’s analyze the possibility of the development of the 2016 Yangyang Industrial Market for reference.
From 2014, it has been two words on the head of the Yangyang’s owner for two consecutive years: downturn, 2015 is another step in 2014, let every sheep industry The owner is full of confused, and the price of the live sheep and lamb, the cost, the impact of imported mutton, etc., it has become a seat on the domestic sheep industry, fortunately, fortunate has become history At the beginning of 2016, the price of live sheep and mutton reached, so that all practitioners were slightly breathed, although this, but the market is still not ideal, or like the dark cloud cover, 2016 sheep industry Where will it go? How to get out of the dilemma? It has become a problem that we think.
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2016 How to develop in the sheep market
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2016 Yang Sheep Market Quotes and Development Trend
The sheep industry is so low, nothing more than the following:
1, the market supply and demand is imbalance, the supply is far more demand;
2, the price of live sheep and mutton has jumped back to a few years ago; Local mutton under imported lamb, sales decline;
3, the cost of raising sheep is high, but the sheep raised is not to sell.
Incident, it will find that in fact, the above point has formed a chain effect, the ring ring is deducted, and it cannot break through. This malignant cycle will cause what results, how to break through the chain in 2016, and we are analyzed.
Live sheep and lamb prices
2015 live sheep and lambThe price is one-wave, but no matter how to be folded, the overall trend is no doubt. To the beginning of 2016, the lower price is finally no longer discovered, and the momentum will begin to rise. Of course, such a rising momentum is only because the Spring Festival is coming, the beginning of the new year procurement season, does not represent the overall trend of 2016, the overall trend of the 2016 Yangyang price has to be analyzed in combination with other factors, let’s try to analyze a bit.
Analysis of live sheep
To analyze 2016 live sheep prices to go, have to review the risk of live sheep prices:
The fell source of this round of live sheep can be traced back to 2013 At the end of the year, due to 2013 and the previous few years, the lamb prices were rolled out, “Yang Gui” “Gui Sheep” and other plays have made a lot of livestock farming industry, and then add a farm pillar pig industry. It happens to be in the swine cycle, you can’t extricate, so many farmers have begun to turn to meat sheep farming. For a time, the raising raising raises in all parts of the country (the amount of meat sheep has increased);
to 2014, The sharp increase in the number of live sheep, the price of the sheep has begun to appear, followed by the northwestern region of China’s meat sheep, the country and provinces have taken response measures to prohibit cross-provincial transportation and other restrictive means. The introduction of the sheep that allows a large number of sheep can’t go on time. Even if the assembly can only rely on the local market;
The influence of the epidemic has continued to continue to September in the second half of 2014, and the substantially concluded restriction measures One time, the number of sheep has exploded. In addition, imported mutton from Australia and other countries has also begun to enter the domestic market at this time, and the lamb supply is far beyond market demand, and sheep has begun to fall;
The number of sheep in the concentrated rancid in 2014 is huge, this wave supply is greater than the continuation of 2015, and the yards in 2014 were basically market digestible, but the corresponding is, new batch The sheep is already waiting for the column, so it is almost through the 2015 year;
until September last year, Xinjiang has started to transfer live sheep from the mainland, and the price of live sheep begins There is a turn, but the market has not responded, the live sheep is completed, the price of the sheep fell again, this wave of falling has continued until 201At the end of the 5 years, I finally taught in a paragraph due to the advent of New Year’s Day and the beginning of the new year purchase season.
From the above review, it can be seen that the fall of the sheep is mainly caused by the market impact. Whenever the live sheep is more concentrated, the price of the sheep will fall, to the beginning of 2016, the main product area such as Inner Mongolia The amount of live sheep has declined significantly, so sheep prices have begun to pick up. Does this mean that the 2016 sheep price will rise straight? No, although the number of meat sheep and stocks in the main production area of Inner Mongolia have fallen, but because the Spring Festival has passed into the lamb, the birth season and the birth of the lamb, the price of the sheep will still fall, then it is very likely that it is in the upper half. At the end of the year, the price of live sheep tends to have a wide range of stable and small fluctuations until the arrival of slaughter seasons in the second half of the year. If there is no other factors, the annual origin of the slaughter season will be the rise of the sheep. It is expected that it will not exceed the exception in 2016. It can last until the rise, but it can be determined, but it can be, even the price of sheep It will not be linear rising, more will present fluctuations, then become more stable, the price of the sheep after the rise is expected to reach the peak of the previous year, after all, the overall view, the quantity of the sheep Still bigger. What is the reason for the 2016 Yangyang prices may presen such a trend, how to judge, let us take a look at the analysis of lamb prices will understand.
2, lamb price analysis
relative to the price of live sheep, the fell of mutton fell is not too big, resulting in the main reason for the result of slaughtering and processing, and the company’s pursuit of profits Of course, this is not that the price of lamb is not falling. It is actually a decline in mutton prices varying degrees, such as the bone mutton with bone mutton in Inner Mongolia in the mother of lamb, in August 2015, The price is as low as 24.7 yuan / kg, and the mainstore of lamb in Xinjiang, Ningxia is also similar.
In 2015, she has been analyzed. We have already analyzed that from the 2014 living sheep’s concentrated out of the ranking, the price of lamb will continue to decline in the second half of 2014, even in 2015 The Spring Festival did not bring more long-lasting and much longer impact on the price of mutton. After the 2015 Spring Festival passed, the lamb went into the lamb, the price of mutton is even more powerful, with the arrival summer barbecue season,The price of lamb rebounds, but still in the low level until September is affected by the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day, and the price of mutton is warm and then continues until the end of the year.
Since the two weeks since 2016, the lamb prices of all over the world have begun to start small rising, and the lamb prices in 36 large and medium-sized cities in the country have risen, such prices rise. Mainly affected by two factors: First, the amount of live sheep in all localities begins to decline; Second, it is the beginning of the spring new year purchase season.
But it is expected that such a rising momentum will disappear after the end of the Spring Festival, and the price of mutton will once again in the 2016, and the lamb prices will have a falling trend again. After entering the barbecue season, there will be lamb prices. The rebound, then stable or slightly fell to the slaughter season, the price will rise again, stable, fall back, and rise again to the end of the year. Overall, if there is no external factor, 2016 mutton prices may rise slightly, but the rise is limited and will be rising fluctuations, and even if it is also difficult to return to the brilliant brilliant. In 2016, the mutton price trend will be so this, what is the basis for judging, and we are analyzed in the following.
The above has been analyzed that the amount of live sheep and the amount of stocks, from the end of 2013, this round of live sheep and mutton price cuts have brought a blow, and opportunities have also brought opportunities. First of all, under such a blow, the opportunityist of the wind and fire joined the raising army army was naturally a bitter, and they were born. According to our statistics, the 2015 lamb production is expected to be 3.9 million tons. The year-on-year decreased by 1.02%, from this group of data is not difficult to judge, many speculative raising sheep have exited the raising sheep army, and the future will pass this round of scrubbing period, it should be real dedicated to meat sheep breeding and slaughter processing. Business and individual. Second, the impact of imported mutton is not negligible. From 2013, the state has begun to import Australia and other countries, this is already an impact, the result is an understandable, in 2015, my country The quarterly cumulative mutton imports were 177,800 tons (about 4.5% of the annual lamb production in 2015), with imports of US $ 606 million. Again, according to statistics, China’s per capita consumer lamb is only 3.04 kg, which has a small gap with other countries. Therefore, the demand for lamb will continue to grow.
With the above three, we will find that the demand for mutton is continuous, then the space of lamb prices and the price of live sheep is still existent; but the impact of imported mutton, the price of mutton and live sheep wants to achieve The brilliant possibility of the first two years is small; coupled with the industry wash period, which in turn affects the amount of sheep and the amount of stocks, and the growth of fluctuating will become inevitable.
Some trend analysis of other sheep industry
In the past two years, domestic consumers have changed, and the boar industry and poultry industry have also suffered this change in recent years. Consumers’ consumption concepts have risen from “meat to eat” to “eat healthy meat”, and it has gradually been welcomed by consumers than the pork is more nutritious than pork. Combine the analysis of the price of live sheep and mutton, it is not difficult to find that 2016 and in the next few years, the development of the sheep industry will have the following points:
1, the number of imported lamb will increase
Consumers ‘needs are the fundamental of the development of the sheep industry, consumers’ demand for mutton and decline in domestic mutton production, then import more lamb will become inevitable. At present, my country’s imported mutton is mainly from Australia, New Zealand, Uruguay and Chile. Due to its own situation by these countries, it will become an inevitable future mutton into China in the future. Therefore, in the future, whether it is imported lamb, it will increase the number of imported lamb.
At present, China’s local sheep industry has exposed a lot of problems with the decline of prices, the traditionalization of farming models, slaughtering and processing, and the brand awareness is reluctant. Vulnerability is different, etc., these exposed problems are currently constrained in China’s industrial development factors. In 2015, we have specifically passed these problems, and we have not described this. After the problem exposes, there will be a company and practitioners to revise and make up. Then, the transformation of the domestic sheep industry will further accelerate, only the industrial transformation to a certain extent, the problem of the current sheep industry will have a good solution Program, this is the foundation of those issues mentioned in the foregoing, only this can break the vicious circle chain of the current sheep industry, and rejuvenate.
3, the direction of transformation of the sheep industry
above has been mentioned, I am currentlyThe country’s sheep industry is actually a round of scrubbing period. It is expected that after this round wash, the future will be the world of branding, large-scale employment enterprises, and in this wheel wash period, the traditional understanding is still maintained. The field and slaughtering and processing enterprises can only struggle in such a chaos and downs in the future.
Many companies in 2015 began to seek new departments, Internet, e-commerce, etc., both of them, whether it is model, their core points are added value of mutton products, and then from low-priced vortices It is seen from it, it can be seen that the future of the sheep property will be the world of high value-added products.
It can be inferred that there will be more companies and individuals in 2016, and these companies and individuals have the row of the Yangyang industrial transformation. They have accumulated the experience in the trial process is the best. References and learning materials, all sheep industry practitioners and individuals should understand and learn. (Source: Niu Yang Tiandi)
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