2017 China’s egg hook industry in the first half of the year and future prospects – Poultry – China Animal Human Website – A useful animal husbandry website
At this time, I received a semester of the semiflus. I strictly had the first half of the year. It is really not small. It is easy to have a horse, but it is still a pressure, talk about me to the first half of the emotional market. And the future trend, I hope to help everyone. Let’s take a look at important information sharing in the recent two groups of eggs: The first group: Is the Chinese Animal Husbandry Association Poultry Branch Representative Wa Wen Ying, in the eighth egg hen industry development conference, parents And commodity representatives’ stock data: 1) Production of national ancestral egg seeds 1, the number of companies: As of the end of 2016, 15 enterprises with ancestral egg seed growing in my country, reducing 4 in 2015, 2017 is maintained in 15. 2, new ancestated egg chicken: Updated 746,800 sets of ancestral egg seeds in 2016, an increase of 32.12% year-on-year. Among them, the country’s product is 67.88%. 3, in the production of the ancestors: In 2016, the annual average annual output of the ancestral egg seeds was 60.09 million, and the average stock of 59.67 million sets were in 2015, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. 2016 is maintained at a higher level. 4, parenting chicks sales: 2016, parents have a total sales volume of 18392 million sets, which is 2.54% year-on-year. (2) The national parent-based egg seed production is 1, in the production of parental egg seeds: In 2016, the average stock of the parent-produced egg seeds is maintained at 14.4 million sets, 1734 in 2015. 10,000 sets, down 29.4 million sets, drop by 16.96%. 2, commodity generation egg chicken supply: 2016, the accumulated sales of national commodity egg chicks was about 1262 million, down 6.45% year-on-year, but the sales of commodity generations did not drop. (3) Production of national commodities 1, Reserve Egg Chicken: 2016 National Reserve Youth Chicken Remicles From $ 550.03 billion in the beginning of the year, 435 million in December. 2, laying egg chicken storage: 2016 National Egg chicken annual average stocks 1264 million, up 3.35%. The second group is: Has hosted by Haitong Futures Company and British Futures Company, Beijing Egg Processing and Sales Industry Association, the Dalian Commodity Exchange Special Supported Hebei Egg Industry Chain Tune Current June 28th to July 2nd, 2017 Bengbu City, Xingtai City, Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, NorthIn Beijing, there is a house, Haidian District, Pinggu District. The conclusion of the survey: 1. The decline in the sales volume of commodity seedlings in the first half of this year. From a few seed chicken companies surveyed, the sales volume of goods in the investigation enterprises accounted for more than 50% of the country. In the first half of this year, especially the second quarter of the commodity seedlings decreased by about 40%. During the May and June 2017, all home have different degrees of gear commodity eggs, including 40% of the parental eggs, 60% of the commodity egg transfer goods eggs. 2. The ancestral seed chickens are still serious and have not decreased. This year’s market market is sluggish, causing the sales volume of chicken seedlings, but the company is only a planned stop hatch, some egg transfer goods eggs, production capacity is still there, recovery very fast. According to the current amount of domestic commodity generation, there are actually 300,000 ancestral seeds, which can meet the needs of parents, but the ancestral seed chickens in the country have been maintained at 60-650,000 sets, this year should be able to Break through 700,000 sets. The ancestors have more than 600,000 sets (more than 350,000 sets), parents have more than 13 million sets (more than 5 million sets), the goods are produced by 1.05 billion (more than 100 million), 440 million yuan from January to May 17. August-15, May, 18th, a chicken farm is prepared to supply 1.4 billion capacity to the market! From the above two messages, you can see a common problem: excess! ! ! From the ancestral egg seeds, to the parent’s egg seeds, to the commodity representative egg chicken, there is a large excess. What is excess direct consequences? Low price sales, the product is low, I want to sell a good price, equivalent level of eggs, it is difficult! The main reason for the continued downturn of the egg hooks: it is more than necessary, lasting two years of profit period, let the entire industry can’t calm down! If you find other reasons, there are also several: first, economic growth slows down, consumption demand levels; second, H7N9 flu on the consumption, circulation of poultry products, has a great influence on consumer consumption confidence , Has a big impact on middle practitioners. The egg market began to New Year 2017 to now, the price of eggs is low, down to the cost line, after the middle is short, and then fall to the low position again, the terminal farm is once again confused. In the first half of the first half of the breeding, the basic and 16 years of profit will be flat, and the two consecutive years and 2016 have been profitable, so that many people in this industry have been excited and created 17 years of downturn! It means although this year is in the first half of this year.Losing some money, for some fund chains, long breeding time, old-raised chicken, unfamiliar expanded, is far from the pain of injury, there is funds and strength to continue. Squeeze out, basically blind expansion, chicken farm with wind chickens, and funds. This has a good advantage for the price of the price, but the big rose needs to squeeze a big batch of chicken out! A short period of time in June, so that the pressure of the seed chicken enterprises and young chicken enterprises that have just begun to get a well-being, which is a good thing for raised poultry companies and young chicken companies, but this is actually a certain extent. It is not conducive to the benign development of the market, and the stocks of the seeds are not reduced. The market is slightly looked up. Turning the increase of the bullion, too many chicks will continue to put the market again, will continue to affect the amount of dense after six months. Further, affect the late egg price! In the current market and information about the egg hook industry chain, the main body of the egg hooks in the terminal market is: 500 days old and above the egg hooks are basically eliminated, and the density of 400 years old eliminated most. The 350 days is eliminated, and the 200 days – 350 is between the ages, the financial chain is tight or broken, and the mentality is not good, and part is eliminated. In the short term, you can eliminate the amount of chickens, which is good for the lowest elimination of chickens. The mainstream producery group is a chicken after eucalyptus in September last year. This part of the chicken is basically firm. It is expected that several important festivals in the second half of the year: National Day, Mid-Autumn Festival, New Year’s Day, The Spring Festival has been eliminated before and after the Spring Festival. I learned from some egg sales, there are many little eggs that have just opened production. There are many young people in the first quarter. Since March, they will open them, and they will have the current egg price in the short term, but from the long run. Look, from April, the quantity of new bullings, the speed of the year, has a large decline in the year, 4-7 months, the amount of new chicken has declined, this part reduces the capacity, will be in joining The egg price was highlighted after 5-6 months after the day. Furthermore, it is currently the summer high temperature and high humidity season. The southern plum rain season, the egg storage period is shortened, and the circulation is accelerated. After the school is on holiday in July, consumption decline, the price of eggs will not be too good, but with the student holiday, tourism season Start, the market consumption is also a short term, basically the flat, will not be affected. (Shandong and Meihua Group Co., Ltd. is mainly engaged in the mixed feed, concentrated feed, mixed feed production and sales. Year production, sales of feed 30 10,000 tons, total output value of 800 million yuan is the focus of Jinan agricultural industrialization. The unique and Memory farming model is for the majority of egg hooks, and pig breeding users provide a sound technical service system, making the benefits of users to improve and have a good praise from more than 20,000 users. Pay attention to WeChat public account: livestock and poultry farming, understand more farmed information. Technical support: Tel: 15853106958QQ: 3332097010 WeChat: 15853106958) In addition, for the national denteen terminal farm, the elegant chicken house is still high, the high temperature conditions are insufficient, the egg yield rate of eggs is affected, and the national egg production will decline The gradual rebound of egg prices in the short term. In summary, personal estimates, in the second half of July, early July, the price will gradually rise, start in September, especially after the end of September, the price of eggs may have some surprises, in the second half of the year’s key nodes, eggs The price may have a scream. Rational breeding, not blindly expanded to the wind, the egg hooks are risky, I believe that through this year’s ultra-low price baptism, let more people have awe in the industry! Of course, there must be the following potential factors: First, the problem of feed costs, 2016, corn price is low, the egg chicken is to win in the feed cost. Corn price, farmer benefits, planting households will lose money, will affect the cultivation of farmers next year, this year, if the overall corn plant declines, plus the drought in some parts of this year, further caused corn production, after winter, corn price It is bound to rise, add the price fluctuations of other raw materials, naturally cause the feed cost to rise. Second, the egg chicken industry lasts for more than half a year of depth loss, some of the funds chains are tight, the chicken farm with high importance of the chicken group, the immunity of the chicken group, the nutritional requirements are reduced, and even some can save, maybe It will cause the chicken group to have a health state, this part of the chicken will not be in a few, once in autumn, or the winter, or the first spring temperature difference, the cold stress may cause the chicken group to explode the epidemic, need attention! Third, the autumn and winter season in the second half of the year, as well as next spring, the temperature difference is large, the climate is cold, it is the season of the epidemic, whether the H7N9 flu will appear again? How big is the impact? This is a question mark, there is a good signal is that the avian deposit is coming soon, and the chicken will pay attention to timely immunization. From a medium long term, in the current domestic egg chicken, the number, production and consumption mode,And the population structure, if the eggs are more exports, the number of egg hooks basically reach the peak period, with the aging of the population, less subsequentization, the demand for eggs in the future, decline, the number of egg hooks It should also fall. China is a world’s egg hooks, but not farmed, China’s egg production accounts for the world’s first, 2015 egg production accounts for 42.8% of the world’s total. At present, the status quo of the egg hooks is: the breeding scale is small and dispersed. The farmers are the main body of Chinese egg cultures, and 50,000 breeding households account for 91.8%, and the farms with a single range of only 63%. Eggs. But in the next five years, this structure will change, and the terminal farm will be a huge capacity pool, and there are some idle capital in the industrial chain, and the intervention of exogenous capital, let more large, super large-scale egg chicken Breeding enterprises in the rapid rise: Zhengda Group 80 million egg chicken project, Deqingyuan 30 million egg chicken project, Shan Banner Golden Husbandry 10 million egg chicken project, Northern Food Agriculture 45 million egg chicken project, Jinlong Group 5 million 5 million gold wing egg products, 4 million Han Wei Group, Wen Shi, new hopes also began to force the egg chicken market, there are more 3 million, 2 million, 1 million, 500,000, 300,000, 100,000 chicken Field … on the road. With the rise of the scale farm, the status of the terminal farm in the industrial chain will change, no longer the lowest end, but it should be inverting, from the phenomenon of recent years, you can see There is a friend to joking and say: raise 100,000 chickens, you can travel throughout the province, raise 200,000 chickens, you can travel throughout the country, raise 500,000 chickens, you can travel around the world, the boss of the large-scale chicken farm is constantly moving, of course This is just a smile, but it is a phenomenon of changes in the changes. In the future, I want to make more profit on the density, please do the following eight points, and I have previously published an article “There must be eight thinking in the future”, there are tens of thousands of browsing, specific to Baidu look for the original text Take a detailed look, then you will share it again: 1. Micro-interest thinking; 2. Data chemical thinking; 3. Fine thinking; 4. Cartry thinking internal management thinking; 5. Product green health thinking; 6. Environmental protection thinking ; 7. Innovation profit thinking; 8. Forward thinking ……. The total cultivation is temporarily unchanged, with the change of the cultured structure, large-scale largest rises, Squeezed, more is the market share of SMEs, everyone is ready? Are you ready? Where are we? After ten years, where are we? Please think more! This article comes from the founder of the egg chicken circle, Liu Peijing, the viewpoint of the text, only represents the original author’s point of view, does not represent this platform view, share it for everyone, for reference only, this article does not do investment reference, please do not blindly, thank you!
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